The Rising Tide: Forecasting U.S. Water and Sewer costs and How to Stay Afloat

The U.S. is home to more than 148,000 public water systems nationwide. While this number might seem huge, most of these systems are quite small. More than 90% of community water systems serve fewer than 10,000 people, most fewer than 3,300 residents. These small but mighty systems are critical to rural and underserved areas, but often struggle with aging infrastructure and limited resources.

By contrast, very large systems (those serving 100,000 or more people) make up just 1% of community water systems. Though there are fewer of them, they serve the majority of Americans. These systems, often located in major metropolitan areas, are the backbone of the nation’s water infrastructure.

Aging (not so) gracefully

Approximately 600 very large community water systems operate across the U.S., supplying water to millions in urban centers like New York City and Los Angeles. These systems maintain extensive networks of treatment plants, reservoirs, pumping stations, and thousands of miles of water mains.

Challenges like climate change, population growth, and emerging contaminants including PFAS have made it difficult (and expensive) for large water systems to operate reliably 24/7. This is made even more difficult by the age of these pipelines. In the Northeast and Midwest water mains average between 90 and 100 years old, with infrastructure in the South and West a few decades newer.

Managing these aging pipelines has placed significant stress on the companies operating them. Massive upgrades and replacements, necessary for safety and operational continuity, all come with high price tags that are increasingly hitting ratepayer’s bills.

What’s ahead for water rates by region?

Water costs are on the rise nationwide. Here’s a quick look at projected regional trends over the next several years:

Northeast and Midwest

Cities like New York, Chicago, and Boston rely on some of the oldest infrastructure in the country, much of it dating back over 100 years. As a result, these regions saw the highest average sewer and water bills across the entire country last year, a trend that is unfortunately going to continue. Businesses in these areas can expect at least 5% annual rate increases driven by aging pipes and regulatory pressures.

South

The southern US is expected to account for nearly half of the nation’s total spend on water and wastewater infrastructure upgrades over the next decade. The benefits of newer pipes have been offset by rapid suburban expansion that is already fueling annual rate hikes of 6% or more, a number that will continue to rise over the next several years.

West

The effects of climate change have hit the western U.S. hard. Droughts, flooding, and wildfires have made water and sewer usage unpredictable and difficult to manage–forcing many cities to enact sweeping increases to water, electricity, and sewer prices. Buildings across the region can expect their water costs to rise at least 10% annually, in some cases tripling over the next five years.

Large buildings will foot the cost of price hikes

As rates climb, concerns about affordability follow. The EPA sets a water affordability benchmark at 4.5% of median household income. With monthly water bills now equaling 20 hours of minimum-wage work in many cities, the burden will increasingly fall to large building owners to pay on time and in full to fill water and sewer company coffers.

How building owners can keep water costs low

Not interested in paying 30-300% more for your water in the next 5 years? There’s a lot building owners can do to stay ahead of escalating costs.

• Track every water bill and meter charge with precision to catch billing errors, overestimates, and rate inconsistencies early. Tired of wrangling your bills in spreadsheets? EnergyCAP takes the manual labor (and the errors) out of entering your utility data, then audits every bill to net most customers 10%+ savings on their utility bills year over year.
  
• Analyze water usage trends over time to detect inefficiencies like hidden leaks, abnormal spikes, or seasonal overuse. Hear how the University of Arizona and Drury Inn uncovered hidden costs and cut their water bills by thousand.
  
• Benchmark facility performance to identify which buildings are underperforming and prioritize upgrades. See how your buildings stack up against your peers using EnergyCAP’s free benchmarking calculator.
• Forecast future water expenses using known rate changes to avoid budget shortfalls. Basing your budget off of last year’s water bills is a risk you don’t want to take. EnergyCAP helps you forecast and budget accurately, then helps you adjust mid-year as your water conservation efforts pay off.
• Spot opportunities for conservation by comparing usage patterns across sites and identifying wasteful equipment or outdated processes. This is where advanced benchmarking really makes a difference. Quickly identifying where your impact will be the greatest means you see maximum results with minimum effort.
• Monitor the ROI of water-saving upgrades—like low-flow fixtures, cooling tower retrofits, and smart irrigation systems.
• Share the data across your organization so facilities, energy, sustainability, and finance departments can act quickly and confidently.
• Lean on your peers. Sharing best practices means that everybody wins. Join our Eco Champions community to connect with similar organizations, access free training, and get answers to your water-cost questions from professionals who know exactly what you’re going through.   

Conclusion

Water rates are rising—it’s not a question of if, but how steep and how soon. As large systems shoulder the burden of aging infrastructure and future demand, the need for clarity, control, and cost accountability has never been greater.

EnergyCAP gives utilities and organizations the insights they need to manage rate impacts, forecast with confidence, and make every dollar count.